• Persistent tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East continue to fuel geopolitical risk premiums. Recent attacks in these regions maintain a high level of alert among traders, supporting price volatility.
At the European level, data on wheat production in France confirm a weaker harvest than initially expected. According to estimates Argus media, French production would reach 30,8 million tonnes, with an average national yield of 6,67 tonnes per hectare – a 6,5% drop compared to the average of the last ten years. Thus, European production in 2026 would register a decline of around 2,55 million tonnes compared to the previous year.
The adverse weather conditions have also generated other side effects, such as low water levels on the Rhine and Danube, which complicates river transport and intra-European flows of goods. At the same time, Tunisia has returned to the market with a call for tenders for 75.000 tons of wheat, imposing strict conditions for deliveries from the Black Sea: suppliers must assume full risks and abandon the invocation of force majeure.
In the oilseeds segment, rapeseed continued to set new highs, moving in tandem with soybeans and canola globally. The November contract on Euronext approached the psychological threshold of €560/ton, also supported by the degradation of sunflower production potential in Western Europe.
Overseas, U.S. crop conditions remain generally good, albeit with minor adjustments. Corn acreage rated good to excellent has edged down to 67%, and 59% of the crop has reached the flowering stage – a critical stage for yield potential. For soybeans, 66% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, and winter wheat harvest has advanced to 74% of the acreage.
Overall, grain and oilseed markets remain sensitive to the combination of geopolitical, meteorological and international demand factors, generating a cautious trading climate, but with the potential for large movements in the coming period.
Euronext quotes on 20.07.2026 (GMT+1)
Wheat (€/t)
| September 2026 | 235,25 | + 0,50 |
| December 2026 | 239,00 | + 2,75 |
| March 2027 | 241,00 | + 3,00 |
| May 2027 | 242,25 | + 2,75 |
| September 2027 | 235,00 | + 2,75 |
Maize (€/t)
| August 2026 | 256,25 | + 8,75 |
| November 2026 | 252,75 | + 5,75 |
| March 2027 | 251,25 | + 4,50 |
| June 2027 | 250,75 | + 3,75 |
| August 2027 | 252,25 | + 4,50 |
Rapeseed (€/t)
| August 2026 | 557,25 | + 13,25 |
| November 2026 | 559,00 | + 9,00 |
| February 2027 | 556,25 | + 8,25 |
| May 2027 | 552,75 | + 8,50 |
| August 2027 | 509,75 | + 6,25 |
Article written by Gabriela Dan, Editor-in-Chief Arta Albă
Read on White Art and: SME Eco-Tech 2026: non-reimbursable financing for Romanian SMEs
