• The beginning of 2025 was marked by a new wave of price increases, reflected in an average price increase of 5%.
According to data provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), January brought an increase of 4,54% compared to the same period last year and 0,8% compared to December 2024.
Regarding food sector, Compared to the beginning of 2024, the most significant price increases were recorded for coffee (+4,23%), oil (+4,14%), bread (+3,18%), cheese (+4,46%), meat and meat products (+3,4%) and alcoholic beverages (+5,56%). In contrast, only five food products recorded price reductions compared to January 2024: butter (-11,36%), sugar (-6,57%), flour (-2,71%), corn (-1,5%) and potatoes (-0,58%).
On non-food goods and services, the price increases in January 2025 were even more pronounced than in the food sector. Clothing and footwear recorded an average increase of over 6%, while cosmetics and hygiene products increased by 6,37%. Also, the price of cigarettes increased by 8,6%, and fuels increased by 6,08%. On the other hand, electricity and gas experienced slight price decreases, by 1,02% and 8,32%, respectively.
Inflation evolution and NBR prospects
According to the INS, the average rate of change in consumer prices for the period February 2024 – January 2025 was 5,4%, compared to the previous 12 months. The members of the NBR Board of Directors reported a sharp increase in inflation in the last quarter of 2024, exceeding initial estimates. Thus, the annual inflation rate reached 5,14% in December 2024, up from 4,62% in September. This evolution was mainly influenced by the increase in fuel prices, as a result of the appreciation of the US dollar on international financial markets, but also by the increase in food prices, against the backdrop of the severe drought in the summer of 2024 and the increase in the prices of some commodities.
Updated forecast of NBR indicates a sharp inflation volatility in the first half of 2025, due to contradictory base effects. In the second half of the year, inflation is expected to decline, but at a higher level than previously estimated, remaining above the target range until the end of the year. For 2026, the NBR estimates a slight decline in inflation below the upper limit of the target range, followed by stabilization at a level only marginally lower than previously anticipated.
Influencing factors and risks
Factors contributing to this decline include the disinflationary effects of falling import prices and the adjustment of short-term inflation expectations, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected. The effects of the aggregate demand gap, which is expected to increase moderately in 2025 and gradually decline thereafter, will also have an impact on inflation.
In addition, uncertainties related to fiscal policy remain a risk factor. On the one hand, the corrective fiscal measures implemented or adopted so far will have an impact on the economy. On the other hand, the requirement for budgetary consolidation, in line with the Medium-Term Budgetary-Structural Plan agreed with the European Commission and the Excessive Deficit Procedure, could influence price and inflation dynamics.
Thus, the beginning of 2025 confirms the upward trend in prices, and the future evolution of inflation will depend on both domestic economic factors and the international situation.
Article written by Gabriela Dan, Editor-in-Chief Arta Albă
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