• In recent years, the global cocoa production market has experienced unprecedented volatility.
After severe supply shortages in the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 seasons pushed prices to record levels, the industry entered a sharp correction in 2026, marked by lower stock prices, unsold stocks and pressure on farmers in West Africa. However, the root causes of instability have not disappeared: they remain rooted in the climatic, biological and structural vulnerabilities of plantations in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana – countries that together provide over 60% of global production.
The cocoa tree continues to be extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. It requires stable temperatures between 20 and 30 °C, regular rainfall and constant humidity. Climate change has amplified weather extremes in the region: the alternation between excessive rains, which favor fungal diseases, and prolonged periods of drought, exacerbated by phenomena such as El Niño, continues to affect fruit development and yields. The increase in the number of days with temperatures above 32 °C adds additional thermal stress, reducing pollination and bean quality. These oscillations, already transformed into a structural risk, mean that production in West Africa remains unpredictable from one season to the next.
Both climatic and biological factors
Climatic factors are compounded by chronic biological threats, which constantly erode the capacity of plantations. Swollen shoot virus (CSSV – Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus), transmitted by insects, is one of the most serious problems. It causes swelling of the branches, yellowing of the leaves, progressive decline in production and, ultimately, the death of the tree within 3–5 years. In Ghana, infection rates frequently exceed 80% in some areas, and in Côte d’Ivoire the incidence has increased significantly in recent years. Losses on affected plantations range from 15% to 50%, sometimes reaching 70%. The only effective measure remains the eradication of diseased plants – a costly and slow process that has already led to the loss of hundreds of millions of trees.
Black rot (black bridge), caused by fungus Phytophthora megakarya, is in turn favored by excessive humidity and can destroy 20–30% of the harvest in normal conditions, or even 65–90% in years with heavy rainfall. Heat and humidity create a vicious circle: trees weakened by climate stress become more vulnerable to infections, and diseases further reduce their resistance to extreme conditions. Added to this are other pests, such as the myrids, which put additional pressure on already fragile plantations.
Not at all depressing forecasts
Beyond climate and pathogens, structural problems worsen the long-term situation. Many plantations are made up of old trees (over 25–40 years old), with naturally declining yields. Farmers, often with limited incomes, have difficulty replanting with resistant and productive varieties. In Ghana, illegal mining (galamsey) pollutes the soil, degrades the land and reduces the cultivable areas. Deforestation for the expansion of plantations in turn accentuates local climatic imbalances. Most farms being small family holdings, the lack of access to irrigation, quality inputs and modern management limits the capacity to adapt to new challenges.
Thus, even though recent seasons have brought some recovery in production and a correction in international prices, fundamental risks persist. Experts warn that without substantial investments in disease-resistant varieties, sustainable agricultural practices, efficient irrigation and effective virus control, swollen shoot, volatility will remain a constant of the profile market.
For the food industry, as well as for consumers, the message is clear: dependence on such a vulnerable region requires a long-term strategic approach – diversification of sources, innovation in reformulations and real support for West African farmers. Only by addressing the underlying structural causes can we ensure stable supply and predictable prices for this essential ingredient in the art of desserts.
Article written by Gabriela Dan, Editor-in-Chief Arta Albă
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