• The wheat harvest in 2024 has ended and the results indicate a total production of approximately 9.6 – 9,8 million tons of wheat, under the conditions of a sown area of 2,23 million hectares.
The average per hectare was 4,46 tons/hectare, below the 2023 average of 5.000 tons/hectare. Conversely, the quality of wheat in 2024 is better than last year, recording a ratio of 70% bread to 30% fodder, compared to 2023 when a ratio of 60% bread to 40% fodder was recorded.
The wheat harvest in Romania in 2024 was marked by several important particularities, influenced mainly by climatic conditions and the global economic context:
- Optimistic initial forecasts: At the beginning of the year, forecasts indicated a promising wheat production of 11 million tons, with estimates well above the average of recent years. This optimism was based on favorable winter conditions and expectations of a good yield per hectare.
- Impact of drought: During the year, the situation changed significantly due to the unusual drought in June, which particularly affected the southern areas of the country. The drought resulted in lower yields and overall wheat production.
- Fluctuating prices: Mills face very high price volatility, there are weeks when the price fluctuates by 10-12 euros/ton, depending on the Euronext Matif exchange, influenced by the developments of the conflict in Ukraine, the increased energy costs and the uncertainties related to security global food.
- Supporting measures: The Romanian government has implemented a series of measures to support farmers affected by the drought, such as compensatory payments and credit facilities.
Export situation
Last year, out of the 9,6 million tons of wheat, 6,6 million tons of wheat were exported by the big multinationals, reaching the point that, in the last months before the harvest, the millers were unable to find any more wheat for domestic consumption, as well as FNCs (Combined Feed Mills).
In the continuation of the year 2024, we expect the same exports of the multinationals and a fierce battle between the latter and the millers and the FNCs that produce raw material for bakery, respectively animal nutrition.
World wheat stocks and yields are close to last year's levels. Prices in the winter months will increase according to Euronext Matif futures by 15% compared to those of the July 2024 harvest.
Europe's share of the global wheat market is threatened by falling production, especially in France, the bloc's biggest exporter.
Romania, the second largest European exporter, could only benefit if the effects of the drought are not felt even more drastically.
Romanian wheat, cheaper than French
At the moment, traders sell Romanian wheat cheaper than French goods, but Russia and Ukraine are far below the quotas of the two countries. France, for example, the main exporter of wheat in the EU, will produce this year, according to estimates, 20% less than the previous year, reaching the lowest level in the last almost four decades.
In addition, prolonged problems with weather conditions in France also reduced grain quality, reducing the amount of milling wheat available.
In this context, Romania, traditionally in second place among European wheat exporters, could benefit, provided a satisfactory production.
In the first six weeks of the 2024/2025 agricultural year that began on July 1, Romania exported 1,2 million tons of common wheat, out of a total of 3 million tons, being, for the moment, the largest exporter.
sources: Internal SEVEN SPOKES, BREAKING, Economica.Net, agroteca.ro.
Material made by SEVEN SPICES – More than milling… and edited by Redaccia Arta Albă
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