• Grain prices ended Friday lower, helped by late-week profits and a USDA report seen as reassuring globally.
USDA revised world wheat production for 2024/2025 down 2,8 million tonnes to 794,8 million tonnes. However, the increase in starting stocks by +1 Mt to 266,2 Mt and the downward revision of world consumption by -2,4 Mt to 802,5 Mt led to an increase in world stocks by +0,5 Mt from last month at 257,72 Mt, which is above expectations.
Among major wheat exporters, downward revisions to the 2024 crop of -0,3 Mt to 53,65 Mt in the United States, -1 Mt to 123 Mt in the European Union and -1 Mt to 82 Mt in Russia are noted . Ukrainian wheat production was increased by 0,6 Mt to 22,9 Mt.
For maize, world production in 2024/2025 is slightly reduced by -1,4 Mt to 1 217,2 Mt, which is offset by an increase in opening stocks of 3 Mt to 312,65 Mt and an increase in consumption worldwide from +3,5 Mt to 1 223,3 Mt. Consequently, world maize stocks were revised down by -1,8 Mt to 306,62 Mt. This was relatively expected.
Oil market
As for soybeans, the adjustments made by USDA to its 2024/2025 global balance are minimal, leading to an expansion in end-of-season stocks to last month's level of 134,5 Mt, which is very close to expectations.
Despite this, tension remains high in the European oilseed market. On Euronext, rapeseed maturities for February and May 2025 are now above €500/t. But it is the sunflower in particular that causes the greatest concern. Unfavorable weather conditions in France are hampering the progress of the harvest, leading to fears of major volume losses.
The corn harvest in France is also very late. According to FranceAgriMer, only 7% of crops had been harvested by October 6, compared to an average of 40% to date.
FranceAgriMer estimates that wheat plantings in France are 6% complete, up from an average of 9%, and that winter barley plantings are 12% complete, up from an average of 16% year-to-date.
Euronext quotes 14.10.2024 (GMT+1)
Wheat (€/t)
| December 1024 | 228,75 | -0,25 |
| March 2025 | 240,75 | -0,50 |
| May 2025 | 245,00 | -0,50 |
| September 2025 | 234,75 | -1,00 |
| December 2025 | 239,75 | -1,00 |
Maize (€/t)
| November 2024 | 214,75 | -0,25 |
| March 2025 | 220,50 | -0,75 |
| June 2025 | 225,00 | -1,00 |
| August 2025 | 227,00 | -0,25 |
| November 2025 | 218,50 | -0,25 |
Rapeseed (€/t)
| November 2024 | 495,25 | -4,00 |
| February 2025 | 502,25 | -2,50 |
| May 2025 | 503,00 | -2,00 |
| August 2025 | 478,75 | -2,25 |
| November 2025 | 480,50 | -2,25 |
Article written by Gabriela Dan, Editor-in-Chief Arta Albă
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