Wheat, corn and rape - Euronext quotes

• The pressure exerted by Russian grain prices, with offers below $215/t in Novorossisk, is pushing grain of European origin downwards.

As a result, wheat for delivery in May on Euronext reaches the threshold of EUR 200/t, thus confirming the pessimism of the moment.

At the end of January, warehouses still had almost 12 million tons of wheat in stock, much of which was still in the possession of farmers. Given these remaining volumes, upside potential will be limited as the slightest rebound will result in massive new sales from manufacturers. The situation is similar for other grains, with stocks at the end of January at the highest level since 2019.

In France, rain remains a cause for concern, raising fears in many regions. Crop conditions remain under observation and the next few weeks are crucial. Elsewhere in the world, Ukrainian and Russian potential is good, raising the question of how firm prices will be next season.

As for spring barley, some producers are wondering if they should change the crop rotation again given the weather.

The US market remains under pressure, but manages to hold on to the $4/bushel threshold for corn. However, the Brazilian competition is still promising, as evidenced by the good pace of seeding. In the Mato Grosso, the sowings exceeded the 80% threshold, more than the average of the last years. As for soybeans, some local analysts are revising their production estimates downward.

American origins are not internationally competitive, which naturally limits the potential for comeback. In the medium term, however, all eyes will be on the plains, with seeding operations to be closely monitored.

Euronext, quotes from 26.02.2024/1/XNUMX (GMT+XNUMX)

Wheat (€/t)

Maize (€/t)

Rapeseed (€/t)

Article written by Gabriela Dan, Editor of Arta Albă

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