Volatility returns to the grain market

• After several months of relative calm, volatility has returned in force to the grain market. A clear proof is the significant recovery recorded yesterday by wheat and corn contracts on Euronext, which partially offset the significant losses accumulated in the previous week.

The European market closely followed the positive development of the US market, boosted by the announcement by the United States of a trade agreement with China. It provides for the annual purchase of US agricultural products worth $17 billion from 2026 to 2028, in addition to the 25 million tonnes already agreed for the same period. Such a commitment could return Chinese imports to the impressive volumes of the first part of this decade.

Although the announcement has not yet received official confirmation from China, it generated a wave of optimism that eliminated any trace of skepticism throughout the trading session. Investors' fear of missing the start of an upward trend fueled buying in both the American and European continents.

In this context, the oil market has maintained a firm trend, supported by the gradual reduction of global stocks. However, some relief came from the statement of US President Donald Trump, who announced the postponement of a planned military attack on Iran, at the request of the Gulf countries, at a time when negotiations seem to be advancing constructively.

The combination of energy factors, the weak euro against the dollar and investment fund enthusiasm in the Chicago soybean market also gave a strong boost to European rapeseed, which ended the session at new short-term highs on the stock exchange. Euronext.

The situation overseas

In the US market, traders reacted strongly after last week's disappointment, when President Trump's visit to China failed to bring concrete announcements for the agricultural sector. Sunday night's announcement of the trade deal triggered a strong trading session, with corn recording one of its best daily performances in nearly three years.

After the market closes, USDA The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its highly anticipated weekly Crop Progress report. The data points to a further deterioration in the U.S. winter wheat situation, with a further decline to just 27% of the crop assessed as "good to excellent", the lowest level since 1996. At the same time, the share of crops "bad to very bad" continued to grow, reaching 43%, the highest percentage since 2014.

The situation is much more favorable for spring wheat, however, where sowings reached 73%, exceeding both expectations and the historical average.

These mixed developments – on the one hand, tensions over winter crops, on the other hand, good progress in new plantings and geopolitical and trade momentum – create a complex context for the grain market, where volatility is likely to remain a dominant element in the immediate period ahead. Investors will be closely watching confirmations of the agreement with China and subsequent developments in weather conditions and agricultural reports.

Euronext quotes on 18.05.2026 (GMT+1)

Wheat (€/t)

Maize (€/t)

Rapeseed (€/t)

Article written by Gabriela Dan, Editor-in-Chief Arta Albă

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